Economic Outlook 2011
In recent years, countless articles from newspapers, magazines, Internet sources, and also books have celebrated the long-term bull market that was established in the year of the Millennium.
It could be an informant giving data for the stock market. This is the trend for 2011. After all, the market is powered by humans, and that’s what makes it endlessly fascinating.
I dug deeper and deeper into history for answers. This research, which becomes the basis of my article.
The United States is not threatened in a major war because during the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, there was a parliamentary election system that was influenced by Western civilization. The Taliban is another problem, even if it happens in Afghanistan.
The first mega market occurred between 1877 and 1891, evolving after the Civil War ended in 1865, and soldiers from both sides returned to farms and the civilian workforce.
The second mega market occurs during the First World War and also the stock market increased four and a half times in value in the space of only eight years.
The third mega market was a huge event because after World War II, the United States and Japan began their journey to become a true economic superpower, fueled by the resources they no longer had to devote to the war effort.
The fourth mega market is the current market today. If we can remember the signing of the agreement of the former president Ronald Reagan of the United States and the former president of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev to end the old war. Under the Obama administration, the death of Osama Bin Laden affected the attacks of September 11, 2001 or known as 9/11.
During the end of the cold war many things happen and there were also changes such as the end of the war and the dawn of peace, new technologies from the UK, Germany, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and finally , low inflation.
After mentioning the four megamarkets, this time I will mention that all megamarkets evolve due to the following axioms:
war is inflationary
peace is deflationary
war is unproductive
peace is productive
War is a time of fear and despair.
Peace is a time of hope and prosperity.
The global economy is at risk of stalling due to rapidly rising oil prices caused by political instability in Africa and the Middle East, which sees demand for political reforms expected to rise alongside government spending, such as subsidies that are distributed to help fight high food prices and unemployment. There is a drop in tourism and capital flight that will probably deepen the unfavorable effect on the region’s balance of payments.
Supply chain disruptions due to massive destruction caused by the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan.
These incidents suddenly and surprisingly change the economic landscape and force us to change our perspective.
There is a change in government policy or economic growth on the domestic front that could set an interest rate in terms of financing. According to Tenille Aho’s article from GoArticles, he states that gold is a kind of investment.
There is turbulence in the financial markets due to concerns about a possible default by one or several governments in the euro zone.
Standard and Poor’s has downgraded the credit rating on US government securities following prolonged efforts to raise the debt ceiling.
After presenting my introductory part, the content, this time I will give my conclusion in this respective article.
I believe that the history and insights provided by serious technical analysis offer support for my view of the current stock market. We are in the midst of a truly global market, and it could hold good promise in the much longer term.
They must remember that the stock market is not just dry statistics and hot money. Global markets are driven by human desires for profit and growth, and by emotions ranging from hope to fear.