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Nick Halling’s NFL Super Bowl Blog

That might surprise you if you’re a casual NFL player, but it shouldn’t. The Packers are certainly the team in form, and the way they’re playing right now, they’re not only going to win the game on Sunday, they’re going to do it by easily covering the spread. They might even be playing well enough that you’re tempted to buy into the over/under, which seems a bit high to me, given the quality of the two defenses on display. Right, that’s the obvious out of the way. Let’s dig a little deeper and see if we can find a nugget or two to make it a happy Super Bowl.

The Packers thrive on big plays, but they managed just two in Week 17, a 20-yarder to Donald Driver and a 46-yarder to Greg Jennings that helped set up that late-game winning touchdown. Things probably won’t be much different on Sunday. The Bears’ Cover-2 base defense is designed not to allow big plays, so while Rodgers is capable of putting up some decent yards, it probably won’t be easy. Green Bay’s offense is not what the Bears saw in Week 17. The Packers unveiled running back James Starks in the wild-card game against Philadelphia to devastating effect. Starks didn’t run nearly as effectively last week at Atlanta, and the Bears are second overall against the run, so don’t expect him to run amok at Soldier Field. What he does do, though, is bring a semblance of balance to the unit, something the Bears will have to keep in mind.

Check the line on running back James Starks for the Packers. It’s going to be low because the Steelers are the best team in the NFL against the run. More troubling for the Packers, the Starks bubble appears to have already burst. He exploded on the scene in the playoff win against Philadelphia, but in two games since, against Atlanta and Chicago, he has averaged just under 3 yards per carry. He will fight to match that against the Steelers. Even worse news for Starks sponsors is that he gets out of the game in goal line situations, so I don’t think he’s worth it in terms of scoring a touchdown. You’d be better off with the human bulldozer John Kuhn.

So that’s the bad news. The good news for Green Bay is that you can move the ball through the air against the Steelers. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is playing at a very high level and has a lot of weapons at his disposal. Picking the hot receiver is always the tough challenge when he goes with the Packers. You know Rodgers will get the yardage from him. It’s just a matter of who is at the end of his pass. I have a feeling he’s going to be the obvious suspect, Greg Jennings. Pittsburgh’s scheme puts a lot of pressure on their corners, and as a result, they are often isolated in a single coverage. Their best cover man is Ike Taylor, and I’d be surprised if they had Taylor covering Jennings at all times, though that strategy worked out pretty well for Chicago, which used Charles Tillman that way.

But the weak link is on the other side, and he frequently burns out Bryant McFadden. He’ll need help covering Jennings, and he may not get much. This, to me, is one of the key matchups in the entire game. McFadden alone can’t take on Jennings, certainly not because of sheer speed, and probably not because of his ability to work the wrinkles in one area. Will the Steelers give him any security help? They tend not to. The other option would be to bring in an additional defensive back and play a nickel. It’s an interesting idea – being on nickel almost challenges the other team to run over you. Would the Packers take that bait? How compromised would the Steelers’ charging zone scheme be if they played a lot of nickel? The man in the know is Pittsburgh defensive mastermind Dick LeBeau, and if I had a bug in his office, I’d be cleaning up Sporting Index myself. But I don’t, so I’m going to follow a hunch. I think he’s going to play a lot to try to contain Rodgers and the passing game. Don’t blame me if I’m wrong: LeBeau is the genius, not me!

What really hurts the Steelers’ chances is another injury to their offensive line. Center Maurkice Pouncey, their best lineman by a mile of field, won’t make it after the serious ankle injury last time out. The Steelers keep their fingers crossed, but he has two hopes: slim and none, and Slim couldn’t get a hotel reservation in Dallas last time he checked. That means they’ll have four alternates playing in the Big Game. They’ve won with a makeshift offensive line before, two years ago against the Cardinals, but Arizona didn’t bring the kind of heat the Packers have. They have an almost identical defensive scheme to the Steelers, based on creating errors and turnovers.

Already struggling at tackle, the inside of the line will now be compromised by Pouncey’s absence. Replacement Doug Legursky is a fighter, but he’s not a prolific run blocker, which could be bad news if you think Pittsburgh running back Rashard Mendenhall will be the key to the game. It’s also bad news for Ben Roethlisberger, who will be hit hard and often. Big Ben takes sacks: that’s part of his game. But the Packers have spent this week improving their tackling, to make sure that when they get the big man where they want him, they’ll knock him down. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Ben gets caught six times. Maybe even more so if, as I suspect, the Steelers chase the game down in the second half.

Given the pressure he’ll face, don’t be surprised if Ben is forced to do a lot of reading and checking. You could do a lot worse than having tight end Heath Miller as Pittsburgh’s leading receiving player in terms of receptions, if not yards. However, if Ben has time, he’ll watch out for Mike Wallace, who has the incredible speed to get behind Green Bay’s secondary. One catch could give him more yards than Miller’s five.

I’m also thinking there’s an early touchdown in this one. Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy graduated from West Coast school of offense, which means the first 15 plays are often written in advance. He won’t be surprised if his initial momentum heralds points. That’s also the best time to get to the Steelers’ defense, as LeBeau likes to take a look at what he’s doing in an offense, and then proceed to stop him from doing it.

I’m not sure if the Steelers will score early or not. Last time, they put together a 10-minute scoring drive in the first series against the Jets. The week before, against Baltimore, they didn’t show up until the second half.

Whatever it is, that will be it for the NFL until September (and hopefully the threat of a player lockout will go away before next season). I hope my songs have helped you gain some pounds. Most of them have been based on sound logic rather than just gut feeling, but as you probably know, there’s very little logic in football at this level. Next season, assuming Sporting Index is still in business, as I have definitely not bankrupted them, I will look to do even better. And yes, I say that every year…

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