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2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper – Homer Bailey

Heading into the upcoming late-round fantasy baseball drafts, possibly even an undrafted starting pitcher has the potential to add 10+ wins, 150Ks, and a decent ERA/WHIP to a team’s bottom line. That player is former #1 ranked baseball prospect (by baseball america) Homer Bailey.

To put into perspective how high up the prospecting community was on Homer Bailey, look at the names that moved up behind him on Baseball America’s 2006 Southern League prospect list:

Yovani Gallardo (current Brewers ace), Matt Kemp (FC All-Star), Ryan Braun (one of the best hitters in baseball) and Joey Votto (rising star first baseman in Cincinnati).

Previous cups of coffee from 2007 (5.76 ERA) and 2008 (7.93 ERA) produced below average results and questions going forward. The start of his 2009 season didn’t alleviate any concerns, and in fact, he even added to them (5.16 ERA in the first half of the season). Looking at Homer’s 2009 season finale of 8-5, 4.53 ERA and a high 1.47 WHIP, it doesn’t seem like anything to write home about. But as the season progressed, Bailey found his rhythm and began to dominate.

Over the course of his last nine starts, he allowed just a 1.70 ERA, holding opponents to a .243 batting average and .317 slugging percentage. He had 53K vs. 24 BBs in that span (58.1 IP). He was even able to keep opponents in check, allowing just 5 steals on 8 attempts.

The only real downside for Bailey going into 2010 is usage. With Dusty Baker being Dusty Baker, Homer has averaged 112 pitches in the previous nine games. If Dusty doesn’t take Homer’s arm off, it should be a steal in the late rounds of most fantasy baseball drafts.

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