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Football (soccer) betting strategy: find out how to win by choosing draws

There are punters who like the “tie” market as it pays well. A common argument among these ‘draw’ bettors is “Are the draws independent of form, ie are they random?”. There are two views:

* One view is that draws are independent of previous results, that each match is different. These punters don’t buy into the theory that a tie is due just because it hasn’t happened for a long time. They believe that the outcome of the match depends on the circumstances and conditions of that particular game, for example: the attacking and defending capabilities of both teams, the weather on that day, the field conditions, etc.

* There are opposing bettors who firmly believe that the probability of a draw depends on previous games, which comes down to the psychology and mentality of the players on the ‘drawish’ teams.

Regardless of what field these draw specialists are in, they all agree that draw bets are more worthwhile compared to home or away bets as the average odds are more attractive.

When choosing the winning ‘sweepstakes’, the following factors should be considered:

1) It is essential to choose the teams instead of choosing the matches, that draw is largely due to the style of play, such as:

* Defensive style and fighting to attack will tend to attract more.

* The formation and attacking tactics will not draw too often.

2) If a certain team draws some games, analyze why:

* Does the team have trouble scoring? If so, why? (Is the key striker injured?)

* Is the team known for its tight defense?

* Is it psychological? Maybe a team on a long losing streak can try harder to get at least one point, i.e. a draw.

3) The following tendencies in matches ending in draws are common:

* Matches where both teams are happy with one point, for example a draw is enough for both to avoid relegation or qualify for a cup competition.

* Matches played in poor weather conditions such as heavy rain usually leading to fewer goals and higher chances of a draw.

* Derby matches where a tie can satisfy both sides.

* The home team in great form against the away team in a solid position at the top of the table.

4) Teams drawing heavily against each other repeatedly could mean:

* They are equal in strength.

* There’s some kind of psychological impact that it’s hard for one of them to bring the other down.

5) Take note of the following:

* If a team has been drafting a lot, and has appointed a new manager, wait a few games to determine if this team continues to draft frequently.

* Beware of newly promoted and newly relegated teams where performance can be erratic.

* Teams that improve in form and that may be more likely to draw playing away.


Some leagues seem to have a higher or lower draw percentage compared to others. This could be due to the characteristics of the leagues in terms of competitiveness, or even the prevalence of match-fixing. This is why some bookmakers do not offer odds on certain European minor league games at the end of the season.

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