Why are you so afraid of one-in-a-million events like shark attacks, child abductions, or dying in a plane crash? Why are you so willing to believe elaborate scenarios about possible future weather events from the very people who can’t even accurately predict tomorrow’s weather? Have you ever stopped to realize that many of the almost hysterical “Pop” fears that once alarmed you, fears like BSE, acid rain, dangerous silicone breast implants, road rage, SARS or avian flu, miraculously disappeared in a moment? point only to be replaced by others that will now or soon disappear in the same mysterious way? Why are you so afraid? Simply put, it’s because of your caveman brain.

Consider this: psychological tests have shown that you have a brain that somehow believes that a piece of chocolate shaped like dog poop really is dog poop. You have a brain that will use the first available number suggested to it to make an estimate about something that has absolutely nothing to do with that number. You have a brain that concludes that elaborate predictions about the future are more likely to come true than simple ones. You have a brain that concludes that things that are easier to remember are more likely to happen again. And, more importantly, he has a brain that is constantly subject to the machinations of interested parties and fearful traders who have a vested interest in keeping him scared.

As Daniel Gardner explains in his book the science of fearWhen it comes to evolutionary psychology, try to imagine the development of the human brain by equating the last 2,000,000 years of human development to a 201-page book. Two hundred pages would cover the entire time our species spent as nomadic hunter-gatherers in the Stone Age. The last page would cover our time in agrarian society, a period that began just 12,000 years ago (the first settlement appeared only about 4,600 years ago). The last few paragraphs of that final page would cover the last two centuries of the world we live in now. We are cavemen.

Now take a look around you. How could a cavewoman, at a lower but decisive level of her brain, not be frightened by everything she sees in this strange and complex world of ours? Her head was designed to roam the savannah, not to deal with most of what bombards her here. That is why her instinct remains the dominant force in decision making. And that is the force that distorts our perception of the world around us. The gut reacts instinctively and like lightning and living in the ultra-fast time that we do, the head just can’t keep up or can’t get through. That is the reason why we now live in a nation of worry, in a society obsessed with risk. No matter how our heads try to tell us that we live in a much safer and healthier time than previous generations enjoyed, our guts block this out and only notice what appears to be the opposite on the nightly news. It lurks in eager anticipation for the next fear to cling to, real or imagined. Needless to say, Gut never has to wait long.

There are many complex psychological mechanisms at play during this ongoing conflict between Gut and Head. Three that stand out here are:

The availability heuristic. If examples of something can be easily remembered, Gut tells us that it must be common. If there is a brutal murder in City X, Gut convinces you that you too are at high risk because you can easily remember it. After all, he “saw” it on TV. It doesn’t matter that Head tries to tell him how small the chances are that he’s in danger. And memory is biased; the more recent, emotional, and vivid the events, the more likely they are to be remembered, and therefore, according to Gut, the more likely they are to happen.

confirm bias. Once a fear is in place, we filter what we see and hear in a biased way that ensures our fears are “proven” justified. Gut doesn’t want to be confused by reasonable arguments or reassuring statistics to the contrary. The gut is bad with numbers. He likes a good story.

group polarization. When people who share fears get together in groups, they become more convinced that their fears are correct and they become even more extreme in their views. Once a fear is generalized, so to speak, the distortion about what should be scary and what shouldn’t be insurmountable. We are social animals and what others think matters to us. That’s why we don’t need reasons to believe in risks and things that “everyone knows” are true. We don’t want them.

Seen in this context, we deceive ourselves when we think that we evaluate evidence and make decisions about risks by rational calculation. Experts are mistaken in thinking that they can alleviate fears about a risk simply by bringing the facts to light. Gut doesn’t listen to reason. And the experts cannot be trusted, as we shall see.

We overestimate the probability of being killed by the things that make the nightly news and underestimate the things that don’t. Never mind that diseases related to smoking or obesity kill far greater numbers than catastrophic events, accidents, terrorism, and murder. Gut sees them over and over again on television (or in other media), obsessing over stories related to them, and thus indirectly contributing to what then becomes a feedback loop of fear. Our distorted perception is easy to explain once we understand that Gut is in control while Head is asleep at the wheel. The head cannot kill the intuition. It can’t change how we feel. And how we feel is the essential part of the calculation here: fear sells. Intuition buys.

Is there something sinister or conspiratorial about selling fear? Not really. After all, self-interest is the natural state of humanity. The news and new media industry makes no secret of its desire to make money, nor does it need it. And it doesn’t stop here. Fear is also a fantastic marketing tool for companies, consultants, politicians, bureaucrats, scientists, activists and NGOs all competing with each other, fighting for influence and sales with fear. For example, it is standard practice for companies that sell cleaning products or alarm systems to increase your awareness of the risks you take by not using their products. What politician has not taken the opportunity to exaggerate a real or imagined danger related to an issue that his political opponent has not addressed? Law enforcement and security officials are naturally reluctant to risk their funding by minimizing security risks to you. Scientists also need funding and well, no problem, there is no funding. NGOs and other groups have political agendas to promote. Would they hesitate to spread fear if it would help them achieve their goals?

What can Head do to help alleviate this problem of our distorted perception? Not much really. Many of the problems we face today are so complex that we as individuals are not in a position to adequately understand them. Since we simply don’t have enough time or energy to research them ourselves, we must rely on experts to do it for us. And these experts are usually biased, most likely belonging to one of the various groups mentioned above. And we are often just as biased as the experts. Strangely, showing fear about particular issues has become a way of expressing cultural identity or making a political statement. I find it amusing that looking into the future and imagining what can go wrong has become a kind of parlor game for intellectuals, for example. And sadly, another problem is that questioning things that “everyone knows to be true” takes a lot of effort and stamina that many of us simply don’t have.

So why are you so afraid? Your caveman brain wouldn’t have it any other way. It’s unfortunate that many of your inner caveman’s risk perception buttons are being pushed by someone else.